Public Holidays Prediction | MLTK ITSI

[rony121]

Hi All, 

I am new to MLTK , I want to use machine learning to predict bank holidays for Europe region. I have past 10-year of data with me to train Machine to predict Holidays for upcoming years.
But with holidays, not all holidays are on same date of years. Like Christmas is on 25th dec of every year but good Friday and black Friday are not constant in terms of dates.

How can I achieve this as to not notify users for all alerts and dashboards ?

Lookup just consists of Holidays and their corresponding Dates.

[richgalloway]

As you've discovered, past holiday dates are not good predictors of future holiday dates.  Even those with fixed dates, like Christmas, may change.  For instance, if Christmas falls on a Saturday then it may be recognized as a corporate holiday on the Friday before.

IMO, the biggest obstacle to predicting holiday dates is not having a lunar calendar in Splunk.  Good Friday, Chinese New Year, Passover, Ramadan, and others are based on lunar rather than sidereal calendars (actually, Good Friday is calculated using a combination of lunar and sidereal calendars).  That's not to mention the differences between Roman Catholic and Eastern Orthodox holiday dates.

I think you're better off building a lookup file based on a web site like timeanddate.com rather than trying to use ML.