so I have this query that detects anomalies in the errors from a specific source based on the mean absolute value of the residual around the median. but my question is does the predict command and the algorithm that I used accounts for the fluctuations of event counts over the weekend the weekends. because with less users using the product over the weekend hence less errors.
index=summary source=some index
orig_source=some source
ms_level=ERROR OR ms_level=error
NOT event=no-event
| sort -_time
| predict count as prediction algorithm=LLP future_timespan=200 holdback=0
| eval prediction=round(prediction,0)
| eval residual= count - prediction
| streamstats window=400 current=true median(residual) as median
| eval abs_dev=(abs(residual- median ))
| streamstats window=400 current=true median(abs_dev) as median_abs_dev
| eval upper_bound=(median + median_abs_dev * 30)
| eval lower_bound=(median - median_abs_dev * 30)
| eval outlier=if(residual > upper_bound OR residual < lower_bound,1,0)
| table _time,event residual, upper_bound
