Have you exceeded the 30 day trial? Try backing up everything under /path/to/splunk/, and then untaring the source on top of itself...
tar -zxvf splunkinstall.tar.gz -C /path/to/splunk
This will overwrite the license with another trial copy, while keeping your old apps, indexes, etc. However, it will overwrite indexes.conf which tells splunk where the indexes are so you'll have to copy in the backup of your indexes.conf and possibly other configs you backed up too.
Its a pain, but it's what you must do if you're going to run trial copies longer than 30 days.
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