+1!
Don't use a count-based warm bucket sizing rule; there are lots of reasons why hot buckets might roll to warm before they reach their max size. Instead, use @lguinn's suggestion of a size limit on the homePath.
Also, please understand that hot buckets aren't magical. There's nothing about a hot bucket that makes it any different to search than a warm bucket--the former is open for writing, that's all. The only difference between warm and cold is the partition on which they're stored (which may lead to different search performance, but in the common case of "just one big partition for all Splunk data", it does not).
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